Week Two: Cardinals @ Jaguars

I've decided to repost my weekly in-depth preview of the Jaguars' game on the blog. Hope you enjoy!



It's time for week two...I, like most of you, was disappointed with the outcome on Sunday, but I was also encouraged. I saw a lot of good tackling, especially by the linebackers. I saw some nice plays by Sean Considine, and some good from Derek Cox (along with some bad, of course). The run-stuffers looked excellent inside. Anyway, on to week two!

Jaguars' rush offense vs. Cardinals' rush defense - Against San Francisco, the Cardinals held Frank Gore to 30 yards on 22 carries, which is, of course, outstanding. SF fans now think we are going to get "owned" by the awesome Cardinals rush defense. I think differently. Arizona boasts a very solid DT in Darnell Dockett, and a rising player at DE in Calais Campbell. However, their other DT and DE are mediocre players at best. The Jaguars' line is much better than San Francisco's, and Maurice Jones-Drew has the ability to run outside, whereas Gore is pretty much only useful between the tackles. Drew was impressive against Indianapolis, though he didn't break any long runs due to the shrunken field. If the Jaguars don't show the ability to throw the ball downfield, expect to see Adrian Wilson around the line of scrimmage doing his Bob Sanders impression all day long. Due to the fact that I expect the Cardinals to stack the box, along with their impressive showing last week, I'm calling this even. Advantage: Even

Jaguars' pass offense vs. Cardinals' pass defense - Against Indianapolis, Garrard looked good early, but with pressure in his face late he fell apart. Expect Arizona to try to bring the house on passing downs and try to rattle Garrard and make him throw short. This will likely open up some routes for Maurice Jones-Drew, routes that they had trouble covering against SF (see Gore's game-winning TD catch; WIDE open). Torry Holt was okay in his first game as a Jaguar, but the drop was disconcerting. Mike Sims-Walker was barely on the field, which seems strange given his great performance against Washington in the final preseason game. Williamson was a non-factor besides the slip, which cost the Jaguars a first down. The WR are going to have to not drop balls or fall down, but Garrard is also going to have to stretch the field. Arizona has a couple nice players in the secondary in Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Adrian Wilson, and a respectable FS in Antrel Rolle, a former CB. The other starting CB, Bryant McFadden, is a career Cover 2 corner from Pittsburgh. Expect Torry Holt to be doing a lot of sitting in the sweet spots of zones. I expect Garrard to look deep a couple times this game, and might hit on one. This should open up the defense a little bit and allow the Jaguars' receivers to do something with the ball. I'm hoping Mike Thomas is active; he would be a shot in the arm to a WR corps that has little run-after-catch ability. Advantage: Even

Jaguars' rush defense vs. Cardinals' rush offense - Arizona has had trouble running the ball since, well, Garrison Hearst. Hightower is a slow back with little to no "wiggle". Chris Wells has a little more suddenness, but neither of these guys are really a threat to bounce anything outside, meaning Henderson and Knighton will be holding down the fort inside. I expect Wells' carry load to increase this week, likely overtaking Hightower's, but I don't expect the Cardinals to be able to do much on the ground. They have a pass-blocking line, not a run-blocking line. Advantage: Jaguars

Jaguars' pass defense vs. Cardinals' pass offense - If the Jaguars don't get a pass rush this week, they will be in trouble. Though he suffered a stinger last week, the reason Warner was a non-factor was due to a fierce 49ers pass rush. Warner looked rattled and was all over the place in terms of accuracy. Fitzgerald was shadowed by Nate Clements, and Boldin wasn't able to get open due to his inability to play at full speed. Boldin should be a little better this week, but hamstrings are tricky. Steve Breaston was inactive with a PCL sprain. If the Jaguars can get pressure, they have the advantage, as Warner looked horrible with pressure in his face. They NEED to cover Tim Hightower in the flat if they blitz, though; Hightower had 121 yards receiving against San Francisco. I expect the Jaguars to bring some blitzes and use a linebacker to stay with Hightower, but I also expect the Cardinals to have some success through the air when they play straight-up. Call it even. Advantage: Even

Jaguars' special teams vs. Cardinals' special teams - The Cardinals use rookie LaRod Stephens-Howling on kickoff returns; having a rookie returning the kicks could be in the Jaguars' favor. The Jaguars' coverage looked solid against Indianapolis. Arizona did a very good job in coverage against SF, holding kickoff returner Allen Rossum to 20 yards per return. Ben Graham boomed punts on Sunday for Arizona, ending up with an average of 54.7 yards per kick. Podlesh was much worse; he had a good couple of kicks, but botched one punt that set the Colts up on a short field. Rackers and Scobee are both very good kickers. Call it even, with the Jaguars having a better chance to take one the distance. Advantage: Even

Overall I think this is a solid matchup with two teams who need to make a statement: Jacksonville that the Indianapolis game was not a fluke, and Arizona that the SF game was. Expect a lot of hard hitting, and a few big plays by each team. I don't expect this to be a defensive battle, but we all saw what happened last week. I'm tempering my expectations with the score. I do, however, expect the Cardinals to have difficulty running the ball, which will cause them to throw early and often. If the Jaguars get pressure without allowing the big play, I love their chances to win this game, and I expect the Jaguars to send enough guys to get in Kurt Warner's face and keep the ball out of the hands of Boldin and Fitzgerald. Once again, Derek Cox will play a huge part in this game. This could be another heart attack special, coming down to the final possession.

Prediction:

Jaguars 23, Cardinals 20