Week 3: Jaguars @ Texans

Well, I definitely overestimated our pass rush for last week. If you had told me we'd get LITERALLY zero pass rush on Warner, I'd have given the Cardinals' pass offense a HUGE edge. I'll make sure not to make the same mistake this week. Week three! We need a win badly!


Jaguars' rush offense vs. Texans' rush defense - What was supposed to be the Jaguars' strong suit, running the ball, has turned into a liability due to the inability of the offense to get the ball downfield. Teams are stacking the box with eight and daring Garrard and company to beat them. So far, the defense has won that battle. That said, Houston's rush defense has looked horrific in the season's first two weeks, giving up huge games to the Jets' pair of backs and Chris Johnson. I can't help but give the Jaguars the edge here, even though it is tempered somewhat by the likely extra man in the box. Expect the Jaguars to run the ball to the right, away from Mario Williams. In return, I expect the Texans to send their extra man to the right side of the Jaguars' formation to help offset the advantage gained by running away from Williams.

Advantage: JAGUARS

Jaguars' pass offense vs. Texans' pass defense - The Texans sport one of the best young DEs in the game in Mario Williams, who will spend the day making life difficult for Eugene Monroe and David Garrard. Expect Lewis and Drew to have to chip on Williams all day, meaning their impact in the passing game will be slightly lessened. With Williamson out and Hughes cut, this game will be the "coming-out party" for rookies Mike Thomas and Jarett Dillard. I don't expect Dillard to see the field much, but Thomas should provide a new dimension to the Jaguars' offense; he gives them a receiver with considerable run-after-the-catch potential. Sims-Walker stepped up in the fourth quarter against Arizona; now he will be forced to play a big role. With the Texans sporting a decent pass defense, including a fierce rush from Williams, Garrard may have to dump the ball off more than...well, most quarterbacks. This is a draw.

Advantage: EVEN

Texans rush offense vs. Jaguars' rush defense - The Jaguars' rush defense looked solid against Indianapolis, but got gashed for big gains against Arizona. The three-man front got manhandled by the Cardinals' line, and the linebackers were inconsistent engaging their man and tackling. The Texans have struggled running the ball to date, but should find some holes against the Jaguars' underwhelming 3-4 alignment. If the Jaguars can't get any push from the big guys up front, this game could get ugly real fast. The Texans' running game has looked pedestrian thus far, but Slaton is a talented back who excels in the Texans' one-cut zone blocking scheme. I have to think the Jaguars will be playing with extra defensive backs to try to stop Schaub, meaning Slaton should have room to run. This advantage belongs to the Texans.

Advantage: TEXANS

Texans' pass offense vs. Jaguars' pass defense - This is a no-brainer...Matt Schaub just lit up one of the league's better defenses in Tennessee, while the Jaguars generated literally no pressure and got their helmets handed to them by Kurt Warner, who put on a league record-setting performance for completion percentage. The Jaguars are either going to have to cover for longer or send the blitz, neither of which are a good strategy against a very good quarterback, one of the two best receivers in the NFL, one of the best receiving TEs in the league, and a great receiving back in Slaton. This isn't even close.

Advantage: TEXANS

Jaguars' special teams vs. Texans' special teams - The blocked field goal by Scobee was due to Scobee taking FOREVER to get the kick off, plus some shoddy interior blocking. Expect teams to try to bring more interior pressure against the Jaguars on field goal attempts. The Jaguars have been absolute zeroes in the return game this year, while the Texans have historically been outstanding on both kick and punt returns against the Jaguars. Even if Andre Davis misses this game, Jacoby Jones is an electric return man. Kris Brown is a solid field goal kicker. Neither punter should play a factor, but based on the play we've seen from the Jaguars' special teams unit thus far, I can't give them the advantage until the show they've earned it.

Advantage: TEXANS

The Texans are a team full of offensive playmakers and fast young defenders. Every time a Texan has the ball, they're a threat to take it to the end zone. The Jaguars, on the other hand, are not anywhere near the threat the Texans are. I expect the Jaguars to have a lot of trouble getting off the field on defense. If the line can give Garrard time to throw, and he can get the ball downfield, this could be a shootout. If the line can't give Garrard time and/or he can't get the ball downfield, the final score will likely look similar to last week's. I expect the team to put forth a better effort than last week and at least make the score closer in a divisional game, but overall this Texans team is better than the Jaguars.

Final score:

Texans 31, Jaguars 20