Week 4: Titans @ Jaguars

This week's analysis! Let me know what you think!

Jaguars' rushing offense vs. Titans' rushing defense - Maurice Jones-Drew busted out against Houston last week for over 100 yards and 3 TD. However, the Titans' rush defense has been outstanding this year, shutting down Steve Slaton, the Jets' pair, and the Steelers' running game. The Titans still have great run-stopping linebackers and active defensive linemen. The Jaguars should struggle to get something going on the ground...unless they can establish the pass. With Cortland Finnegan likely out and nickelback Vincent Fuller out this week, the Titans will likely not bring SS Chris Hope into the box to stop the run, leaving him back to help defend the pass. This should help open running lanes for Jones-Drew. With the Mike Thomas end-around option wrinkle thrown in, I expect the Jaguars to have more success than they usually would on the ground.

Advantage: Even

Jaguars' passing offense vs. Titans' passing defense - The Titans' pass defense has already been subpar this year, with Michael Griffin and Finnegan possibly showing signs of regression. With the aforementioned Finnegan and Fuller inactive this week, the Jaguars should be able to throw the ball fairly easily; that is, if they can keep the Titans' pass rush off of David Garrard. Though their pass defense has been mediocre, the Titans still get after the quarterback. If the Jaguars can protect like they did last week, Garrard, Holt, and Sims-Walker and company should have a field day. Expect Marcedes Lewis and Maurice Jones-Drew to do some chipping on the Titans' DEs to try to slow the rush and allow Garrard to look downfield. The Jaguars' pass offense hasn't been amazing, but it has shown signs of improvement both last week and in the second half against the Cardinals; it's hard not to give this matchup to the Jaguars. Still, the Titans have historically played tough defense against the Jaguars, and with Jeff Fisher managing the game plan I have to call it even.

Advantage: Even

Titans' rushing offense vs. Jaguars' rushing defense - The Jaguars have been decent against the run in all three games this year, but this will prove their toughest test yet. Chris Johnson is second in the NFL in rushing yards through three games, including a massacre against Houston two weeks ago. The Titans' line is one of the best run-blocking lines in the NFL, and the Jaguars may have to commit Gerald Alexander (likely replacing Considine in the lineup Sunday) to cheat toward the line of scrimmage to help contain Johnson. Expect Johnson to get the ball early and often, and hope the Jaguars' linebackers can beat him to the corner. This is a no-brainer.

Advantage: Titans

Titans' passing offense vs. Jaguars' passing defense - Tennessee receivers have been fairly pedestrian this season. New acquisition Nate Washington has scored in two straight, but missed time with an injury in the beginning of the season and is still catching up. Rookie Kenny Britt has also been slowed by injury, and Justin Gage has been targeted often but has dropped a handful of passes. Rookie TE Jared Cook has also struggled with injuries and has not yet made an impact. Chris Johnson is a weapon in the passing game, so expect the Jaguars to assign a linebacker (Durant or Ingram) to sort of shadow Johnson and try to prevent him from breaking a big one. Overall the Titans' passing options are limited, but the Jaguars just last week showed their very first signs of a pass rush. Rashean Mathis has been outstanding this year, but Derek Cox is still learning. Reggie Nelson played solidly as the nickel corner last week; expect that experiment to continue. Overall this is a very close matchup; neither of these units are particularly great, but if one of them steps up it could very well decide the game.

Advantage: Even

Jaguars' special teams vs. Titans' special teams - With punter Craig Hentrich on IR and new kick returner Mark Jones having been brought back due to Ryan Mouton's ineptitude at catching the ball, I can't see any reason to give this matchup to the Titans. The Jaguars have been pretty solid on special teams all season long.

Advantage: Jaguars

Overall this should be another hard-fought divisional matchup. Tennessee has historically had Jacksonville's number, and though they're 0-3 so far this year they'll be itching for a victory. Expect a lot of Chris Johnson in the Titans' game plan, and expect the Jaguars to game plan to stop Johnson. This game could be decided by field position and turnovers. Unfortunately, I think that points slightly in the Titans' favor due to their great running game and opportunistic defense. Still, the Jaguars DO have a chance to win this game; they need to be able to get off the field on third down, run the ball effectively, not turn the ball over, and convert third downs themselves. It should be a great football game this Sunday.

Titans 23, Jaguars 20